Penske Truck Leasing says current-model production slots are sold out, and that some manufacturers are closing order books. Summit Truck Equipment is telling customers to review 2026 build slots ahead of the 2027 emissions changes. Pre-buy is the story of the fall. NTEA's June numbers are not a surge.
June, which is a complete series
U.S./Mexico chassis sales in June 2026 against June 2025:
| Class | June vs last June |
|---|---|
| Class 7 | +11.2% |
| Class 5 | +8.0% |
| Class 6 | +3.5% |
| Class 3 | +1.1% |
| Class 2 | +0.5% |
| Class 8 | +0.5% |
| Class 4 | -3.9% |
Source: NTEA Market Data, June 2026
All chassis sales were up 3.1% in June and down 5.5% for the year to date. Shipments were up 12.7% in June and down 0.8% year to date.
Year to date is not a full chart
NTEA published a year-to-date percent for the total (-5.5%), for Class 6 (-16.7%), and for Class 8 (-14.9%). It said Classes 2 and 3 were positive and did not give the figure. Filling the gaps with zero would be a lie, so those stay as words.
The forecast is a different measure
At Work Truck Week in March, NTEA's Andrew Wrobel gave 2026 commercial truck sales three cases: +6% as the baseline, +1% if the Middle East or tariffs get worse, and +12% if a pre-buy shows up. Through June, chassis sales are running below the low case.
Source: Andrew Wrobel, NTEA, Work Truck Week, March 2026, via Trucks Parts Service
Do not lay the -5.5% on top of that chart. The forecast is commercial truck sales overall. The -5.5% is chassis sales, with tractors (-20.4% year to date) and vans (+6.0%) reported on their own. Same direction, different measure.
Two honest reasons the pre-buy story can still be right. NTEA said most of the 2025 slide, truck and chassis sales down 6.3% for the year, came in the second half, mostly in vans and tractors, so the comparisons get easier from here. And lead time. In the last public lead-time table, the NTEA Industry Health Report with data through December 2024, suppliers reported 9 weeks for Class 3, 14 for Class 4, 20 for Class 5, 21 for Class 6, and 25 for Classes 7 and 8. December 2021 was 24 to 36 weeks across those classes. If lead times still look like that, a Class 4 or 5 chassis ordered today arrives between early January and mid-February. A slot being sold out and a truck being sold are different events, and NTEA counts the second one. June shipments up 12.7% is what orders landing would look like. It does not prove they were a pre-buy.
What happens after is the part nobody is quoting. NTEA's January 2025 report expected growth into 2026, and expected 2027, an emissions year, to be down. Penske's planner warns there may be a stretch with no new equipment between the end of model year 2027 production and the start of 2028. A pull-forward is a loan against next year.
S&P Global's Andrej Divis told the same Work Truck Week session that the average age of a commercial truck hit 12.8 years in 2025, the highest since the Great Recession. Of the five biggest vocational registration categories, lease/rental, general freight, services, construction, and government, only government grew in 2025. Of the top 15 categories, six did. Services and construction are core upfit customers, and neither grew.
What to watch is the NTEA member dashboard for July, August, and September chassis shipments by class. That is where a sold-out slot either becomes a truck or doesn't, and in which class. If Class 4 and 5 are not moving, the pre-buy is a Class 8 story that reached the work-truck press.
Sources: NTEA, Market Data and Industry Statistics, June 2026 U.S./Mexico chassis sales and shipments; NTEA Industry Health Report, January 2025; Trucks, Parts, Service, "Global economic volatility remains a headwind for 2026 truck sales," March 11, 2026; Penske Truck Leasing, "How Fleets Can Prepare for the 2027 EPA Regulations on Emissions."
